The DACS is pleased to announce the release of its latest Gold Practice document "Metrics-Based Scheduling", located on our website at http://www.goldpractices.com/practices/mbs/index.php
The literature is profuse with references to the famous Standish Group CHAOS reports, which portray a somewhat dismal picture of the success rates of software development projects. According to the Standish Group CHAOS report of 1994:
- 31% of IT Projects Canceled Before Completion
- Average IT Projects Cost 189% of Original Estimate
- Average Time Overrun is 222% of Original Estimates
- 88% of all IT Projects are Over Schedule, Over Budget, or Both
- On Average, Only 61% of Originally Specified Features Implemented
The Standish Group CHAOS report for 2003 presented the following data:
- 5% of software projects are terminated before they produce anything
- 66% are considered to have failed
- Of those that do complete the average cost blowout is 43%
- The lost dollar value for USA projects in 2002 is estimated at US$38bn with another US$17bn in cost overruns
Although this is a significant improvement over the 1994 CHAOS report, we still have many challenges to meet. CHAOS critics assert that part of the problem may be due to the fact that developers commit to unrealistic estimates of effort, cost and schedule in the first place, setting the stage for failure.
- Perhaps cost estimates supported a bid-to-win strategy that was unrelated to the actual amount of work to be done.
- Perhaps the initial schedule was driven by business requirements alone and did not consider the product size/functionality
- Perhaps there was no real awareness of the developer’s process productivity.
- Perhaps there was no reality check performed up front to see if what had been proposed and accepted was actually feasible.
- Perhaps, there was no motivation to develop a realistic cost and schedule baseline.
“At the heart of the estimating challenge are two issues: 1) the need to understand and express (as early as possible) the software problem domain and 2) the need to understand our capability to deliver the required software solution within a specified environment. Then, and only then, can we accurately predict the effort required to deliver the product.” (Garmus, “Principles of Sizing and Estimating Using (IFPUG) Function Points”, DACS Software Tech News, Vol 9-2, June 2006)
Metrics-Based Scheduling is ultimately about not wasting resources. It is about collecting empirical data and using it to improve the accuracy of estimates that drive cost and scheduling decisions. It is about letting the size of the software product drive effort estimates and scheduling. It is about the developer knowing how much work they are capable of producing in specific project environments and using that information to improve the accuracy of effort estimates and scheduling. It is about taking steps to resolve effort, scheduling and cost issues during the planning stages of a project before establishing the project baseline. It is about increased communication and collaboration of developer and acquirer that stems from greater confidence in the estimates used to drive decision making. It is about having data that enables the developer and acquirer to engage in more flexible contractual arrangements that reduce the risks of project failure.
This practice is a compendium of several best practices integrated into the project planning process and, as such, it has a broad scope. The focus is in understanding how all the elements work together to achieve realistic baseline scheduling. It is intended for both the acquirer and the developer and both must be willing to gather empirical data that is needed, particularly the size estimates of the envisioned product.
The DACS invites you to compare your process for initial scheduling to this practice and ,perhaps, share your experiences with us. Please consider sharing lessons learned or tell us about the challenges you are facing in your particular environment. We will protect your privacy. Send us an email (goldpractices@thedacs.com) and we will follow up with you.
The DACS Gold Practice Initiative (www.goldpractices.com) strives to identify, analyze and disseminate value-added data and information on software acquisition and development practices that may be “worth their weight in gold” to an organization through demonstrated cost savings risk reduction improved delivery times and higher software process and performance quality and reliability. Come see what we're doing in our Gold Practice Initiative, or stop by to see all that we have to offer at our DACS Home Page (http://www.thedacs.com).
